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Product thesis

Siren is building a category around execution and risk intelligence for prediction markets. That distinction matters. Prediction markets now have more attention, more venues, and more liquidity than before. But the trader experience around execution reliability and risk clarity still lags behind.

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The problem

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Execution blindness

Traders often see a contract and a price idea, but not whether the order book can really absorb their size. That leads to:
  • partial fills
  • failed routes
  • ugly exits
  • repeated retries without learning

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Sizing by instinct

Many active traders stack exposure across related events without a clear concentration view. They may have different positions across venues that all depend on the same real-world outcome.

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Resolution-window risk

As a contract approaches resolution, the risk profile changes:
  • books can thin out
  • exits can get more expensive
  • traders can get trapped at the worst time

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Post-trade darkness

Most tools stop at “submitted” or “failed.” They do not explain:
  • what actually happened
  • whether anything partially filled
  • what route worked
  • what to do next

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What Siren is

Siren is:
  • an execution and risk intelligence layer
  • a product that sits above venues
  • a trader-facing system for feasibility, sizing, explanations, and guardrails
Siren is not:
  • a full venue replacement
  • a leverage-first product
  • a structured-product wrapper as the main wedge
  • “just another prediction app”

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Product pillars

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Execution feasibility

Before or at submit time, Siren should help you understand what size can plausibly clear.

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Adaptive execution

When full size is unrealistic, Siren should support smaller controlled steps instead of opaque failure loops.

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Route explanation

Error output should become human-readable and actionable.

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Risk guardrails

Start with simple rules that change behavior:
  • concentration hints
  • resolution awareness
  • venue readiness

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Post-trade reporting

Every trade should leave behind context, not just a signature.

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Mental model

The ecosystem can be thought of in layers:
  1. Venues and liquidity
    Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar venues where the contracts live.
  2. Capital and structure
    Leverage, structured positions, bundled products, and related wrappers.
  3. Siren
    Execution reliability, sizing, route clarity, risk framing, and learning after the fact.
That third layer is still underserved.

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Core success metric

Siren’s primary KPI should be a practical one: prediction sell execution success rate over a rolling 7-day window That means:
  • attempted sells
  • successful sells
  • successful partial fills after chunking
  • a real baseline before and after instrumentation
This is why trade-attempt logging matters so much to the product.